Keep on Holding On
“The centre is holding” reassured European Commission President, Ursula Von der Leyen, following the European Parliament (EP) elections in June. She was referring to the threat from the populist radical right (PRR), which many feared would make sweeping gains across the continent. Had their success been as great as some predicted, Europe’s position on everything from economics, Ukraine, the environment, to minority rights could have shifted dramatically.
But the centre held. Progressives and centrists can breathe out at last. And yet, even the turn of phrase itself is suggestive of something unstable. As though the ‘centre’ is the last vestige of the now-old New World Order which is clinging on while everything else around it collapses. So what does it actually mean for the centre to hold? And what do the results mean for the 6% of European Union (EU) citizens who identify as LGBTQ+? Let’s start with some context.
Explainer: The European Parliament (Partie Un)
The EP is the beating democratic heart of the sprawling, multifaceted organism that is the EU. Every five years, the bloc’s 450 million citizens are asked to vote on the 720 politicians who will become Members of the European Parliament (MEPs). This makes it the largest democratic election in the world after India.
It has substantial legislative and budgetary powers and is particularly concerned with the rule of law, democratic values and human rights. So it’s a big deal, particularly for minority groups such as LGBTQ+ populations.
It’s also why it really matters who those MEPs are. The characters and politics of these 720 MEPs have the capacity to shape the character and politics of the EU itself. Parties on the far right are aware of this now more than ever. Given their nationalistic leanings, Eurosceptism is in the DNA of the far-right. Historically, most PRR parties campaigned to leave the bloc. In recent years, however, many have changed tac, and have instead sought to subvert the institution from within rather than leave.
Brexit: The Gift That Keeps on Giving
We can largely thank Britain’s leading right-wing populist, Nigel Farage, and his UK Independence Party (UKIP) for this sea change. In true populist fashion, Farage created an effective them-and-us narrative, blaming Europe for all of Britain’s social and economic woes. Eight years and six Prime Ministers since the country’s EU Referendum, however, and few parties on the continent would argue that Brexit has been a success worth imitating.
The new aim of the game is to bend the EU further to the right, from within. Hence now having to contend with authoritarian leaders such as Hungary’s Viktor Obán publicly campaigning on a slogan to ‘Occupy Brussels’. This is why the political persuasions of MEPs matter now more than ever.
Explainer: The European Parliament (Partie Deux)
Political persuasions are everything when it comes to the Parliament. MEPs are selected from national parties across Europe. These national parties then come together into larger European groups based on their shared political values. Historically, the parliament has been dominated by two groups made up of centrist parties. On the centre-left are the Socialists and Democrats (S&D). On the centre-right is the European Peoples Party (EPP), which includes Germany’s Christian Democrats, to which current EC President Von der Leyen belongs.
Led by these centrists, the parliament has pressed ahead over the years with what have, on the whole, been socially liberal policies on issues such as LGBTQ+ rights and immigration. Yet Europe’s more conservative enclaves have long resented the EP picking away at what they consider the fabric of their (heteronormative, nativist) societies. These gripes have long fallen on deaf ears in Brussels, however, leaving it wide open for criticisms of ‘arrogance’.
Judgement Day: The 2024 European Parliament Elections
Fast-forward to the 2024 elections, and it’s clear that public discontent across Europe is incrementally playing into the PRR’s hands. Their vote share increased from 18% in 2019 to 24% this year. A 6% rise is not the seismic shift many had feared. By comparison, centrist groups (S&D, EPP, Greens and Renew) faired better than anticipated overall. These groups will likely form alliances to try and contain the influence of the PRR. Nonetheless, a near quarter of votes cannot be sniffed at. The fact that many commentators seem relieved by the election results arguably says more about the normalisation of extremism than it does about the stability of Europe.
National parties once considered mad, bad, and dangerous to know are now frantically reorganising themselves into new parliamentary groups aimed at maximising their influence in European affairs over the coming years.
France’s Rassemblement National (RN) has now joined forces with Orbán’s Fidesz party, amongst many others, to create Patriots for Europe. Overnight, this new group ballooned in size to match the other major far-right club, the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), home to Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) party, and Meloni’s Brothers of Italy (Euronews, 2024). Lastly, Germany’s Alternative for Deutschland (AfD) has launched a third group, The Europe of Sovereign Nations.
Had these parties formed a single group, Europe’s minorities would likely all be running for a panic room right about now. But discord is a contagion which the far-right can’t help but spread, even amongst its own. This irony may prove to be our saving grace, for now at least.
What the European Elections May Mean for Europe’s LGBTQ+ Populations
States Governed by PRR Parties Could Intensify Their Domestic Assaults on LGBTQ+ Rights
We have arguably already witnessed a weakening defence of LGBTQ+ issues in the final months of the last parliament. Some of which we’ve covered in this blog series. For instance, attacks on LGBTQ+ rights in both Italy and EU candidate country, Georgia, were met with impassioned yet inconsequential rebukes from Brussels. These meek responses can be attributed, at least in part, to the influence of other populist parties within the bloc preventing any more substantive action from being taken. It’s a trend likely to continue as the PRR gains confidence in numbers.
LGBTQ+ Inclusive Policies Might Stall
The previous parliament advanced a proposal to protect rainbow families. The legislation would ensure that children of same-sex parents are recognised across all jurisdictions. Yet any proposed amendments to the bill could see it brought back to parliament, where it could now face significant opposition from an emboldened hard right. A similar fate could await many other initiatives backed by LGBTQ+ rights campaigners in the coming five years.
Centre-Right Groups Could Harden Their Positions on LGBTQ+ Rights
The radical right could drag centre-right groups, such as Renew and the EPP, even further to the right. In fact, it’s already happening. France’s President Macron regards himself a staunch centrist and a leading figure in the EP’s Renew Group. Yet during France’s bitterly contested EP election campaign, Macron resorted to transphobic slurs, calling the prospect of changing one’s gender at a Town Hall ‘grotesque’. It’s one thing for centrists to debate the supposed risks and merits of self-identification. It’s quite another to use inflammatory words straight out of the populist playbook to win back votes from the far-right. Not least given that the implicit message it sends to the wider public is that trans people are themselves grotesque.
The Rise (and Rise) of Homo/Bi/Trans+ Phobia
All of this has real life consequences for queer people living out their everyday lives. In France’s recent snap elections, it was widely predicted that Le Pen’s Rassemblement National would emerge as the winner. The mere presumption of their success was enough to motivate a violent homophobic attack on a 19-year-old man in Paris. The four perpetrators were arrested yet boasted:
“In three weeks, we will be able to smash up f*gs as much as we like”.
Ultimately, RN was forced into third place following colossal tactical voting efforts by their political detractors. Yet the popularity of the far right has grown in step with a rise in LGBTQ+ hate crimes and hate speech, both in France and indeed all of Europe.
Earlier this year, the EU Agency for Fundamental Rights (FRA) published its five-yearly report on LGBTIQ+ equality across the bloc. Harassment of queer people has jumped from 37% to 55% over the last year. Bullying in schools is up from 46% to 67% since 2019, and physical and sexual violence increased from 11% to 14% in the same period.
Summary
These figures make for unnerving reading. Yet it’s also true that there is more acceptance of queer people in Europe than ever before. The European Commission has found that over 70% of EU citizens now believe that there is nothing wrong with same-sex relationships. Support for trans people has also increased to 63%.
It seems the European Union’s years of carefully considered policies on LGBTQ+ rights are finally now bearing fruit. But clearly, this is no time to be resting on our laurels. Quite the contrary. Never before has Europe’s queer citizens had so much to lose. Pride started as a protest, and protest we absolutely must.
Article By Ross Othen-Reeves
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